The Last Friday Before the Summer Lull: NFP, National Bank, and Bitcoin in Panic

Friday is marked by anticipation. Global investors are focused on the release of the May employment report in the U.S. — Non-Farm Payrolls, which could significantly impact expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy. At the same time, markets are monitoring the situation in the Middle East, oil price dynamics, and central bank decisions — including the National Bank of Kazakhstan, which will announce its decision on the base rate today.

🇺🇸 USA: All Eyes on the Labor Market

American indices remain near historical highs: Dow Jones — around 51,300 points · S&P 500 — around 7,620 points · Nasdaq Composite — around 27,100 points. However, today investors' main focus is not on corporate reports but on labor market statistics: Non-Farm Payrolls (new jobs outside agriculture) · unemployment rate · average hourly wage.

Strong data could strengthen the dollar and bolster expectations for maintaining high Fed rates. Weaker figures could bring markets back to discussions of potential monetary policy easing.

🌏 Asia Trades Mixed

Asian markets are showing mixed dynamics. Nikkei (Japan) is correcting after a recent rise — additional pressure comes from the strengthening yen and expectations of possible actions from the Bank of Japan. China continues to send mixed signals: the services sector shows resilience, while the industrial sector remains weak.

India is in the spotlight today — the Reserve Bank of India will announce its interest rate decision. Any changes could impact the currency markets of emerging countries and investors' risk appetite.

🇪🇺 Europe Evaluates Economic Growth

European investors are analyzing new GDP and inflation data. Major indices: DAX +0.4% · CAC 40 +0.2% · FTSE 100 −0.3%. Inflation in the eurozone remains elevated: CPI — 3.2% · Core CPI — 2.5%.

High inflation limits the ECB's ability to quickly lower rates and maintains pressure on the European economy. On the agenda — Eurozone GDP and retail sales.

🛢️ Oil — The Main Risk Factor · 🥇 Gold Holds Its Ground

The energy market continues to be influenced by news from the Middle East: Brent — $92–95 per barrel · WTI — $91–92 per barrel. The main source of uncertainty remains the situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Any deterioration in the situation could trigger a new spike in oil prices and increase inflationary pressure worldwide.

Despite a strong dollar, investors continue to use gold as a hedge against geopolitical and inflationary risks: Gold — around $4,480 per ounce · Silver — around $74.5 per ounce.

💱 Currency Market: Dollar Strong, Yen Under Pressure

The dollar maintains strong positions: EUR/USD — around 1.16 · GBP/USD is stable · USD/JPY — around 160. The market is closely watching the actions of the Bank of Japan, which may intervene to support the national currency.

The release of Non-Farm Payrolls today could sharply change the dynamics of the dollar and major currency pairs — investors are awaiting the data with heightened attention.

₿ Cryptocurrencies Remain Under Pressure

Digital assets continue to face pressure from macroeconomic factors: Bitcoin (BTC) — around $67,000 · Ethereum (ETH) — around $1,880 · Solana (SOL) — around $75. The total capitalization of the crypto market is held around $2.4 trillion, however, the fear and greed index remains in the Extreme Fear zone.

Pressure on the market is exerted by high rates, a strengthening dollar, and a decrease in risk appetite. The publication of Non-Farm Payrolls today could further increase volatility in digital assets.

🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: The Main Event of the Day — National Bank Decision

For the Kazakh financial market, today is one of the most important days in June. The National Bank of Kazakhstan will announce its decision on the base rate, which could determine the further dynamics of the tenge exchange rate, bond yields, the credit market, the banking sector, and the stock market KASE. Most analysts expect the regulator to maintain cautious rhetoric, however, some market participants anticipate the first rate cut in months amid a gradual slowdown in inflation.

What is happening in the local market: the KASE index is holding near historical highs · USD/KZT is trading around 480–485 tenge · investors continue to closely monitor oil prices, which remain a key factor for the national currency. High oil prices continue to support budget revenues and the country's balance of payments, however, ongoing global uncertainty keeps market participants cautious.

⚡ In Focus Today: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls — the main publication of the week · S&P 500 at 7,620 and Nasdaq at 27,100 near highs · Brent $92–95 and geopolitics of the Persian Gulf · Bitcoin in Extreme Fear at $67,000 · USD/JPY at a critical level of 160 · National Bank of Kazakhstan's decision on the base rate · Reserve Bank of India's rate decision · inflation in Turkey.