Holiday Monday, oil below $100 and cautious optimism: global markets May 25
Global financial markets are starting the week in a relatively calm mode: investors continue to play out the easing of geopolitical tensions around the Middle East, while the technology sector keeps markets at historical highs.
Global financial markets are starting the week in a relatively calm mode: investors continue to play out the easing of geopolitical tensions around the Middle East, while the technology sector keeps markets at historical highs. Trading activity today is noticeably lower than usual — the USA, the UK, Hong Kong, and Switzerland are partially or fully closed due to national holidays.
📈 The AI sector is holding the market again
Despite reduced liquidity, American indices continue to hold near historical highs. The main driver is the ongoing rally in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors. Investors continue to actively accumulate in the technology sector after a strong wave of corporate reports and sustained demand for AI infrastructure. S&P 500 and Nasdaq maintain positive momentum, while European markets gradually catch up with the American market.
Additional support for the markets comes from news about the easing of tensions around Iran. According to several sources, the USA and Iran have approached a principled agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz, although the final terms of the deal have not yet been agreed upon.
🛢 Oil falls below $100
One of the main events of the day remains the correction in the oil market: Brent is down more than 2% and falls to $98 per barrel, WTI is down even more — over 5%. The market is gradually removing the geopolitical premium from oil prices amid expectations of possible stabilization of supplies through the Middle East.
The decline in oil simultaneously eases inflation risks and reduces pressure on global central banks — however, it puts pressure on the energy sector and commodity currencies.
🥇 Gold stabilizes — gas corrects
Gold is trading around $4570 per ounce, trying to stabilize after a morning decline. Investors continue to balance between demand for safe assets and a return of interest in riskier instruments.
The gas market is also correcting: futures NG fell below $2.87 after a recent rise.
💵 Forex and dollar: cautious expectations
The dollar remains stable amid cautious expectations regarding further actions by the Fed. Traders continue to closely monitor inflation, the US labor market, the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve, and bond yield dynamics.
Low activity due to holiday weekends in key financial centers is currently restraining strong movements in the currency market.
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: tenge stable, KASE corrects
Official exchange rate of the National Bank: USD/KZT — 470.80 ₸ · EUR/KZT — 545.99 ₸ · RUB/KZT — 6.60 ₸. The exchange rate USDKZT_TOM closed around 471 tenge per dollar. The index KASE fell by 0.25% to 7,596 points — pressure on the market is exerted by certain large issuers: shares of Air Astana hit historical lows.
The macroeconomic situation remains relatively stable: the volume of cash withdrawals through ATMs has begun to decline for the first time, the government is strengthening the fiscalization of the economy, the Ministry of Finance is preparing to issue long-term bonds on KASE worth 60 billion tenge. Economists note a slowdown in Kazakhstan's GDP growth to 3% amid a high base rate and cooling consumer lending.
⚡ In focus today: AI rally keeps markets at highs despite holiday liquidity · Brent below $98 and WTI -5% amid Iranian negotiations · gold at $4570 in stabilization mode · KASE -0.25% to 7,596 points · issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 60 billion tenge.